Mi carrito | Mi perfil | Ayuda | English Site    

 Búsqueda rápida:
Soluciones para:
Mi perfil:
Sobre Aertia:

Crystal Ball 11.1

de Decisioneering

Transforme sus hojas de cálculo Microsoft Excel® para obtener una visión fiable de riesgos, crear modelos predictivos precisos, buscar la mejor solución y maximizar su inversión. Crystal Ball es la herramienta que le permite realizar simulaciones de Monte Carlo para predicciones, así como análisis de optimización.

Descripción | Más información | Demos | Precios | Sectores | Plataformas

Crystall Ball en empresas de ingeniería

As an engineer, you know that some level of variability exists in all processes and projects. When variability increases, the results can include missed deadlines, escalating costs, and disappearing profits. An important part of your job is to identify the sources of variability, whether technical or financial, and to manage and reduce the variability as best you can. That's why you need Crystal Ball.

Crystal Ball is an easy-to-use simulation program that helps to analyze the risks and uncertainties associated with your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet models. Today, Crystal Ball is the tool chosen by more than 85% of the Fortune 500. Engineers from companies like BAE Systems, Battelle, Motorola, ChevronTexaco, Siemens AG, and Xerox all rely on Crystal Ball to manage risk, reduce variability, and make more informed business and strategic decisions.

With increased competition, globalization, reduced resources, and staff cutbacks, this is a challenging time for businesses. Whether you're a design, quality, electrical, mechanical, or other engineer, your knowledge and your toolset will make the difference between whether your project succeeds or fails.

Low-cost software and improved computing power can enable you to better calculate the risks in your strategy or process. Crystal Ball can help you better assess your alternatives, increase the confidence you have in planning details, and make more informed decisions despite a lack of data or an uncertain future.

The Limitations of Excel
Excel is one of the most powerful modeling tools available for helping you to define a process and frame a decision. An experienced professional can use Excel to describe almost any given process or scenario. Yet one major limitation of Excel is its inability to easily generate alternative outcomes, which can be used to quantify your probability of success and to mitigate your risks. Excel alone cannot help you to understand how variable or uncertain inputs will affect your forecasts.

Most Excel users handle uncertainty in the traditional way: selecting the mean or best-guess values for the uncertain or variable inputs (e.g. costs, demands, development times, etc...). Since Excel formatting requires a single value per cell, modelers are forced to pick a representative value, even when they know that the value is far from certain.

The downside of using estimated values is that it lacks any sense of accuracy. Are you 90% likely to be under budget? Are you 70% certain to make a profit? Will 6.4% of your assembled products be defective? Traditional modeling methods can't determine your probability of success, nor can they pinpoint which inputs will have the greatest impact on your forecast. Fortunately, these crucial questions can be answered through simulation modeling with Crystal Ball.

How does Crystal Ball work?
At its most basic level, Crystal Ball performs two tasks. First, Crystal Ball lets you define the uncertain inputs in your spreadsheet as probability distributions, which more realistically represent the possible values of the inputs. For example, instead of limiting a wire thickness to an average value of 0.50 mm, you can create a probability distribution (e.g., a bell curve) that represents a range of possible thicknesses from 0.35 mm to 0.65 mm.

Second, Crystal Ball uses the defined distributions and Monte Carlo simulation (a technique for simulating real-world situations involving elements of uncertainty) to create thousands of possible alternative outcomes for your model. For example, if you are simulating how tolerance will impact a new product design, you can use Crystal Ball to generate 5000 scenarios that represent 5000 products. By analyzing the statistics of your simulation, you can quantity the likelihood that your new product will meet system requirements (e.g., a 94% certainty).

Beyond those two functions, Crystal Ball includes a powerful set of statistical and graphing tools that help you to create and present your risk models. Crystal Ball adds its own toolbar and menus, and the output graphs, charts, and reports are all created in native Excel formats. As an add-in product to Excel, Crystal Ball retains all of Excel's functionality while seamlessly adding the power of simulation, optimization, forecasting, and other advanced risk analysis techniques.

Who's using Crystal Ball?
Crystal Ball is for anyone who uses spreadsheets and needs to forecast uncertain results. Engineers in nearly every industry, from construction to manufacturing to government to consulting, all rely on Crystal Ball to improve the quality of their decision-making processes.

Primary Crystal Ball applications include tolerance analysis, cost risk estimation, environmental cost calculations, analysis of contigency provisions, reservoir estimation, and simulation of product design requirements and schedule risks.

Key features of interest to your industry include sensitivity and tornado analysis, correlation, and historical data fitting. The sensitivity analysis and tornado analysis are two separate methods that help you to understand which of the uncertain inputs drive the uncertainty in your engineering model. Correlation lets you link uncertain inputs and account for their positive or negative dependencies. If historical data does exist, the data fitting feature will compare the data to the distribution algorithms and calculate the best possible fit and parameters for your data.

Is Crystal Ball easy to use?
Unlike other available simulation tools, Crystal Ball earns high marks for its ease-of-use and implementation. The graphical interface, user-friendly toolbar, and award-winning documentation help both the statistician and the non-statistician to quickly learn and apply Crystal Ball. With Crystal Ball, you will have the potential of answering difficult questions in minutes with just a few clicks of the mouse.

You can use Crystal Ball to enhance new or existing spreadsheet models, and because Crystal Ball does not does not rely on specialized Excel functions, you can share Crystal Ball models with other colleagues who do not have the software installed. With single-user and network licenses available, any number of individuals in a department or organization can use Crystal Ball. Of course, the newest version of Crystal Ball works with the latest Windows and Microsoft Office products.

To help get you started, we ship Crystal Ball with tutorials and a selection of example spreadsheet models. Customers who enjoy online training can purchase our Crystal Ball training CD, and those who prefer classroom instruction can register for one of our many regional training classes.

What other advanced tools are available?
In addition to Monte Carlo simulation, key Crystal Ball features include distribution fitting to historic data, correlation of distributions, sensitivity analysis, precision control of simulations, and forecast filtering. All editions of Crystal Ball come with the seven Tools that can help speed your model development and improve your analysis of results. For engineering, the Batch Fit, Correlation Matrix, Tornado Chart, and Scenario Analysis tools are particularly helpful for advanced model building and analysis.

Crystal Ball Professional Edition is a suite of software tools that includes Crystal Ball and software for optimization, time-series forecasting, and macro building. OptQuest, the Crystal Ball add-in for optimization, is a global optimization tool that simultaneously runs simulations while searching for the optimal solution for a problem. By using a combination of optimization methods and technology that helps analyze past solutions, OptQuest converges on optimal solutions faster and more accurately than genetic-algorithm-based optimizers. Engineering applications for OptQuest include tolerance optimization and resource allocation.

CB Predictor, the time-series forecasting tool, helps you to analyze historical data that exhibits some form of trend and/or seasonality over time (e.g. machine failure, market demand). Using your historical data, you can extend past trends into the future using one of eight forecasting methods or multiple linear forecasting. The most advanced Excel users can apply the macros and functions of the Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits to create automated processes and run simulations at the push of a button!

What are the benefits of using Crystal Ball?
With Crystal Ball, you will:

  • No longer rely on forecasts based on misleading (average) values,
  • Quickly convert your existing models into dynamic simulation tools, Evaluate multiple strategies and outcomes in one easy process,
  • Understand which inputs control the variability of your forecasts,
  • Determine and reduce your risks in the planning stage, prior to a costly implementation,
  • Graphically communicate potential risks to your clients, managers, or peers, and
  • Stand out from your competitors by using better tools and providing a more in-depth analysis.

Once you've run a simulation, optimization, or forecast, Crystal Ball provides you with a variety of flexible charts that help you to clearly present your results and ideas to colleagues, managers, and clients. With expensive and strategic decisions on the line, Crystal Ball reports can help you to communicate the effects of uncertainty and guide the decision-making process. In the end, a better analysis means a better-informed decision.

So...what?s the probability that you can benefit from Crystal Ball?s simulation and analysis?

Más información relacionada
Crystall Ball en empresas de ingeniería
Folleto de Crystal Ball (en inglés)
Novedades de Crystal Ball (en inglés)
Crystal Ball y MINITAB: Un complemento perfecto (en inglés)
La importancia de la modelización y la simulación en DFSS (en inglés)
Crystall Ball en proyectos Seis Sigma (en inglés)
Modelando la incertidumbre en gestión de proyectos (en inglés)
Improve stock performance forecasting time from one stock per hour to 700 in half an hour (en inglés)
Decrease Time to Market (TTM) for a complex assembly, from 48 to 12 man-months (en inglés)
Maximize returns on project portfolios with Crystal Ball (en inglés)
» Enviar a un amigo
» Imprimir página
» Suscribirse a este producto

» Ver precios
» Ver productos de Decisioneering

» Descargar demo

» Crystall Ball en empresas de ingeniería
» Folleto de Crystal Ball
» Novedades de Crystal Ball
» Crystal Ball y MINITAB: Un complemento perfecto
» La importancia de la modelización y la simulación en DFSS
» Crystall Ball en proyectos Seis Sigma
» Modelando la incertidumbre en gestión de proyectos
» Improve stock performance forecasting time from one stock per hour to 700 in half an hour
» Decrease Time to Market (TTM) for a complex assembly, from 48 to 12 man-months
» Maximize returns on project portfolios with Crystal Ball

© 2004-2005 Aertia Software  •  C/ Sardenya, 229, Sat. 5  •  08013 Barcelona
Teléfono: 93 2651320  •  Fax: 93 2652351  •  E-mail: info@aertia.com